Saturday, May 1, 2010

2010 Hurricane Season Approaches

The 2010 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season begins in 31 days, on June 1. And, it's only 15 days until the official start of the EPAC (Eastern Pacific) season. As usual, Cruising Musings will be keeping an eye on the tropics.

Several hurricane experts have weighed in with their predictions for this year's tropical activity, and there is a general agreement among all of them that the 2010 season is very likely to be more active than that of 2009. At this point, the general consensus is that this season will be well above average, with the following ranges predicted among those from CSU, WSI, TSR, and Accuweather:

Number of Named Storms: 16 - 18
Number of Hurricanes: 7 - 9
Number of Intense Hurricanes: 4 - 5 (Category 3 or stronger)

There's a general agreement that the threat of at least one landfalling hurricane for the US coast (Atlantic and/or Gulf), as well as in the Caribbean, is greater than average. One organization (WSI) even pegs the probability that 2010 will be in the top 1/3 of most active seasons on record at a whopping 77%!

Whether you have a ton of faith in these early predictions or not, given the fact that we are in an active multi-year cycle, it's not unreasonable for coastal and island residents to be a little more prepared than usual. Last year was an easy one. What are the odds of two in a row during an active cycle?

Yep - it's that time of year: Time to be giving some serious and active thought to your emergency plans, supplies, and preparations.