Monday, August 12, 2013

Updated 2013 Hurricane Season Predictions

Latest Forecasts by CSU and TSR

- from 2013 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Predictions -
Hurricane Felix (2007) passes Aruba, CC
The August updates for the 2013 hurricane season predictions have been released by two prominent forecasting teams:  Colorado State University, and Tropical Storm Risk.  Each has actually lowered their numbers, but only very slightly.

For years, those who follow seasonal tropical weather activity have followed the reports from the eminent team of Drs. FGray and Klotzbach at CSU.  Their original report, from April of this year, called for 18 named storms, 9 of which would become hurricanes, with 4 of those intensifying to major status.  The August forecast has revised that prediction to 18,8, and 3.

At TSR, the April numbers of 15.2 (named), 7.5(hurricanes), and 3.4 (major hurricanes) have also been lowered slightly in August, to 14.8, 6.9, and 3.0.

That's the good news.
The bad news is in the landfall predicions.  The brains at the two places generally agree that the chances of at least one hurricane hurricane making landfall somewhere in the U.S., and also at least one on the Caribbean are above average.  (That's as compared to the average year over the last century)

Here's where you can see more about this year's forecasts, and compare the numbers from CSU and TSR, as well as the NHC and WSI:   2013 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Predictions

How are we doing so far?
So far, we have seen four named storms, which puts us ahead of schedule compared to a typical year.  None of those four ever made it to hurricane status, making this year to date normal in that respect.

The next name on the list is:  Erin. (See all the hurricane names for 2013)

REMINDER:  Make sure your hurricane supplies are in order and that your emergency evacuation plans are up to date.  Don't forget the fresh batteries for your NOAA Weather Radio.