Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Jerry No Threat, but Is Karen on the Way?

Tropical Storm Jerry and Threat of Karen
Way out in the Atlantic, somewhere between Bermuda and the Azores, a tropical system has been meandering about for several days.  Named Jerry, he has apparently decided to head towards the northeast over the next several days.  There is no current threat to land, and by the time he reaches the neighborhood of the Azores, he's predicted to have weakened into a Tropical Depression.

Invest 97L on 10/02/13
Meanwhile, in the Northwest Caribbean, another story is unfolding.  It's the story of a developing system that has already brought heavy rains to Jamaica and the Caymans.  Right now, the NHC gives it a 70% chance of becoming a cyclone (at least a Tropical Depression) and may (or may not) eventually become the twelfth named storm of the season, Karen.

Regardless, the system seems heading for the Gulf of Mexico, where the environment may guide it towards the NNE.  Everyone from coastal Louisiana to the Florida panhandle should be keeping themselves apprised of the system's progress, whereabouts, and direction.

For cruisers, this means ships out of Galveston and New Orleans this weekend could encounter some weather.  Keep a careful eye on this one.  It may mean some altered schedules or itineraries.

Sadly, it would seem the government shutdown has grounded NOAA's hurricane hunter aircraft, which flies out of Tampa.

However, the Air Force Reserves Hurricane Hunters, based in Biloxi, are still flying, and they actually have a plane in the system now.  So, we'll soon know what they find.  There will be additional investigation tomorrow, if deemed necessary.

Read more about the Hurricane Hunters.